Astra Zeneca Expects 75 Percent Revenue Growth by 2023

Astra Zeneca CEO Pascal Soriot

Astra Zeneca CEO Pascal Soriot

AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot says that the company is on board for making $45 billion in revenue by 2023, which is 75 percent higher than 2013 sales. The reason for his positive attitude is the experimental cancer treatments released at the American Society of Clinical Oncology this weekend.

According to one of the meeting’s findings, two AstraZeneca drugs combined that target ovarian cancer, were able to double the chance of progression-free survival. In addition, early-stage data on one lung cancer drug showed tumors shrank in 64 percent of patients with a gene mutation.

Zintro expert Rita Kelley of Shoreline Consulting, LLC shares her opinion:

Astra Zeneca has being going through a tremendous transition and change over the past 5-7 years. The organization has had key products go off patent and has seen some high profile failures in its R&D pipeline. It is a bold statement that Pascal Soriot makes when he states that he believes he will be able to achieve a 75% increase in sales by 2023 to $45 billion. In a recent Forbes interview, done at the 2014 ASCO meeting in Chicago, Soriot stated that he believes this because there will be multiple indications for his drug pipeline in oncology.

Well, truth be told, life is what happens to you when you are making other plans. The fields are littered with forecasts of drugs that were supposed to be multi-billion dollar revenue drivers only to fall by the wayside when those indications didn’t work out, or did not achieve their forecasts. One only needs to look at Nature Reviews Drug Discovery V. 13, 419–431 (2014) which shows AZ’s development success rate at 60% vs the industry median at 67%.

While Astra Zeneca  has implemented new approaches, most notably linking the disease and drug targets to identifiable biomarkers or genetic mutations, it is unlikely that these shifts in R&D approach which are only now being implemented will help Astra Zeneca to achieve the 75% increase by the 2023 deadline.

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