Thoughts on the impact of the US presidential election on global markets

We asked our Zintro experts about the potential impact of the US presidential election on global markets. Here are some of their insights.

Tomas Nordberg, an international relations expert, thinks that the US presidential election will have an important impact on global markets. “Obama is known as a proponent of free trade. Romney is more of a protectionist, although his basic inclination is to support global free trade as well. Obama is viewed favorably around the world while Romney is an unknown politician for the most part. In addition, Obama is a well-known supporter of international organizations. Romney, on the other hand, has a more nationalist approach that focuses on the well-being of US companies,” says Nordberg. “Romney is known to change his mind on a variety of issues to gather populist support. Republicans, on the other hand, are known to work hard in support of open markets and international trade. Romney does have more business experience than Obama. This is something that could reassure potential investors and international politicians in some countries.”

Nordberg sees the potential for a negative reaction to Romney´s policies considering his pronounced pro-US stand on international issues. “Romney is not an internationalist and his moves on the international stage so far have been erratic, to say the least. Obama, who graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law School, is considerably more respected around the world. Although not as popular as he was four years ago, Obama has gone to great lengths to foster a cooperative climate in international economic policy-making,” explains Nordberg. “Obama’s less aggressive stance on issues such as Iran is far more likely than Romney´s inflammatory rhetoric to contribute to stable global markets. With Obama at the helm, the political leaders of the world know who they are dealing with. Romney, on the other hand, is an unproven card in international politics but he does have a lot of experience in business but little international exposure. This is more likely than not to unsettle global markets and cause a negative impact on international trade. If Romney were to be elected, he might well worsen the conflict with Iran, which might lead to a meltdown in international relations between the West and the Middle East. This would have a catastrophic effect on global markets and could result in a war with extremely dangerous and unpredictable effects.”

Donald Yonce, a financial advisor and manager, says that the Romney/Ryan/Tea Party philosophy is contrary to the Keynesian economic structure of the global monetary system. “All money is debt, so in order to sustain debt, the creation of new
money must occur. Expansion of debt is a necessity. Obama is inclined to help the middle class to maintain its purchasing power by insisting that those benefiting from the system are taxed to level the field lest the 1 percent corner the market on wealth. Bottom line for the US is that more debt is built in and not likely to be reduced. Working class folks must be allowed to maintain the purchasing value of their labors, and that may not happen with a Republican administration or Congress, so Congressional races are potentially most important,” says Yonce.

By Maureen Aylward

Zintro, Inc

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