With Greece on the brink of new elections, and the possibility of Greece leaving the Euro inching forward, we asked our Zintro experts how a Greek exit from the euro currency would effect the economies of Europe and impact global markets.
Edward Marsh, an expert in international business development, says that it is almost immaterial if the actual Grexit occurs at this point. “Of course there will be some vexing and traumatic machinations which will be required to fulfill the transition, and reverberations will be broad, but, the important lessons are clear to those with the inclination and strategic perspective to acknowledge them,” he says. “Although borders, and certainly passports are relatively recent constructs, groups with common cultures are natural and longstanding. Partnerships based on trade and prosperity will complement cultural identities. Autonomous with a distinct identity and simultaneously an economically collaborative – that is the only sustainable model for economic integration. It’s the key to Germany’s success and the principle behind US Department of Commerce ‘Peace through Commerce’ initiative to animate American integration throughout ASEAN.”
Marsh points out that companies, just like countries, need to diversify interests among international markets with favorable demographic, commercial, and policy trajectories. ‘Strategically selecting optimal markets transcends chasing headlines and requires the application of rigorous research and comprehensive metrics addressing numerous diverse factors from demographics to political risk,” he says.
Bryan Allworthy, an investment analyst, thinks that a Greece exit from the euro will not be a Lehman Brothers moment for the euro zone. “The biggest impact on Greece leaving the euro will be felt in Greece. There is likely to be a lot of financial pain and behavior gain. The financial pain could well be shorter than the work out plan from Brussels. The behavior gain could be longer. A conceptual example might be found in the UK exit from the ERM: devaluation, reflation, competitive advantage,” he says.
As for the political situation in Greece, All worthy thinks that leaving the euro is best left to the Greek Central Bank. “Forget the politics until Greek politicians can claim credibility. If the Greek nation embraces the chance to benefit then transparency improves, FDI flows, and a new middle class prosperity emerges. It is not a trade but it could be an investment opportunity – not just portfolio investment but a real option for businesses too,” he says.
What do you think?
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